Ch 2. Global Average Temperature

?????.  Is there any such thing? Temperature measurements and proxies.  ? Manipulation . Natural cycles. What are the meaningful trends?  http://tgrule.wordpress.com/carbon-attack/global-average-temperature/

 

 

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[edit] Caveats

  1. A typical modern temperature construction involves tens or hundreds of records to ensure reasonable global coverage. Because the average shown here involves only 8 records, it is entirely plausible that significant contributions to temperature variation are being overlooked because certain large regions (e.g. Asia) are not being sampled.
  2. Different regions have different sensitivity to global temperature variations, so one can reasonably argue that a true global average reconstruction requires scaling the different records to match local sensitivity. Since no scientific consensus exists for how to do this, no attempt was made to do this.
  3. Given the limited spatial sampling, it is unclear whether the slightly warmer period during the Holocene climatic optimum corresponds to a statistically significant difference.
  4. Because the Davis et al. pollen reconstruction is based on measurements across many sites in Europe, it is more reasonably described as a regional rather than a local temperature measurement. Similarly, it shows considerably less short-term variability than most other sites.
  5. A small number of records, not used in this study, have been interpreted as indicating much larger temperature variation during the Holocene (5+ °C) than the records represented here. In many cases, critics have interpreted these changes to reflect seasonal, rather than annual variations in temperature, or very unusual local changes. However, the possibility exists that the current reconstruction underestimates long-term variability.
  6. During the earliest parts of this record, the timing uncertainty on some records may become substantial, potentially exceeding a couple hundred years. This could have the result of causing correlated features to fall out of alignment.
  7. And the most important caveat: Though all of this data is published, and the methodology is similar to previously published methodology, and resulting average is similar to previously published interpretations of the Holocene, even so, no peer reviewed scientific publication has ever combined precisely these data in precisely this way. Hence, any interpretation of that average must be regarded with skepticism.

[edit] Notes

  1. The time scale for the EPICA ice core was adjusted to the EDC1 (Schwander et al. 2001), which is the preferred time scale for the last 80 kyr.
  2. The time scale for sediment core ODP 658 was converted from the listed Carbon-14 time scale to calendar years by using the marine INTCAL04 calibration curve (Hughen et al. 2004).
  3. Because of poorer data resolution, the sediment core PL07-39PC was smoothed to an approximately 500 year average.
  4. δDeuterium record of the EPICA ice core was converted to temperature variation by using the δDeuterium to temperature proportionality determined for the Vostok ice core.
  5. δ18O temperature proxy from the Kilimanjaro ice core was converted to °C by scaling its variance from the interval 100-6000 years BP to match that reported in the Vostok ice core during the same period.

[edit] Additional References

  1. Error: journal= not stated.
  2. Error: journal= not stated.

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Now things get interesting

http://www.surfacestations.org/ One of temp source variables.

UAH Global Temperature Update for August, 2011: +0.33 deg. C

By Dr. Roy Spencer

The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for August, 2011 retreated a little, to +0.33 deg. C (click on the image for a LARGE version):

Note that this month I have taken the liberty of adding a 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel). This is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.

Here are the stats…we are beginning to see cooling in the tropics from La Nina conditions which are re-emerging there:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2011 1 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372
2011 2 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348
2011 3 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342
2011 4 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229
2011 5 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043
2011 6 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233
2011 7 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204
2011 8 +0.325 +0.323 +0.327 +0.157

The global sea surface temperatures from AMSR-E through the end of August are shown next. The trend line is, again, for entertainment purposes only:

CURRENT MEASUREMENTS/COMPUTATIONS:

Climate Widget records:

Jan 11 TA 0.0 SS 17

Feb 11 TA -0.01 SS 30

Mar 11 TA -0.1 SS 55

Apr 11 TA 0.22 SS 54

May 11 TA 0.23 SS 40 (prior – est from graphs).

June 11: TA 0.31 degC; CO2 391.4; Sunspot 61 (then 128); Solar Flux 90 (then 120) per WUWT (rev 1/8)

July 11: TA 0.37 degC; CO2 391.4; SS 119 (then 54); SF 98 (then92) per WUWT (rev 10/8). [Revised again 11/8: CO2 - 391.8, SS -12, SF - 87.] On 23/8 SS became 66, SF became 104. Still trying to understand this as I thought the figures were monthly totals!

Here we go again: 25/8 SS=75, SF = 104, still labelled July.

2/9 still labelled July SS 109 SF 124

3/9: direct from wuwt – TA 0.33 then widget CO2 391.8 SS 109 SF 124

13/9 Widget update – Aug TA 0.33, then as above.

26/9 Update: SS =108, SF = 169

06/10 Sept GTA 0.29, CO2 391.7, SS 126, SF 129 Interesting cooling trend!

05/11 Oct GTA 0.11, Sept CO2 392.3, (?oct ) SS 161, SF 169.

c.23/11 Oct GTA 0.11, Oct CO2 392.22, [less if you believe the accuracy is possible, maybe following the decreasing GTA :-)] SS 101, SF 141.

by 16/12     Nov GTA 0.12,   SS = 70,   SF = 132

http://www.warwickhughes.com/icecore/IceCoreSprg97.pdf one method under scrutiny

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