Discussion re Monckton debate 19/7/11
Lord Monckton decisively won this debate while facing an obviously hostile audience because observational evidence and fundamental analysis indicates total warming due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels will be less than 1C. His arguments were based on facts in peer review papers.
Lord Monckton is not a denier. He does not deny the fact that increasing atmospheric CO2 will cause some warming of the planet. The hard scientific facts support the assertion that the warming due to a doubling of will be less than 1C for a doubling of CO2. Warming of 1C with most of the warming occurring at high latitudes will be beneficial to the environment. The biosphere will and is expanding the increased atmospheric CO2.
Observational evidence in published papers such as measurement of the total radiation at top of atmosphere measured by satellite over the last 20 years supports the assertion that the planetary sensitivity to a change in forcing is negative (planetary cloud cover increases when the planet is warmer to reflect more solar radiation into space). The IPCC predicted warming of 3.3C for a doubling of C02 requires the feedback to be positive rather than negative.
On the determination of climate feedbacks from ERBE data
 Climate feedbacks are estimated from fluctuations in the outgoing radiation budget from the latest version of Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) nonscanner data. It appears, for the entire tropics, the observed outgoing radiation fluxes increase with the increase in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The observed behavior of radiation fluxes implies negative feedback processes associated with relatively low climate sensitivity. This is the opposite of the behavior of 11 atmospheric models forced by the same SSTs. Therefore, the models display much higher climate sensitivity than is inferred from ERBE, though it is difficult to pin down such high sensitivities with any precision. Results also show, the feedback in ERBE is mostly from shortwave radiation while the feedback in the models is mostly from longwave radiation. Although such a test does not distinguish the mechanisms, this is important since the inconsistency of climate feedbacks constitutes a very fundamental problem in climate prediction.
LIMITS ON CO2 CLIMATE FORCING FROM RECENT TEMPERATURE DATA OF EARTH
The global atmospheric temperature anomalies of Earth reached a maximum in1998 which has not been exceeded during the subsequent 10 years. The global anomalies are calculated from the average of climate effects occurring in the tropical and the extratropical latitude bands. El Niño/La Niña effects in the tropical band are shown to explain the 1998 maximum while variations in the background of the global anomalies largely come from climate effects in the northern extratropics. These effects do not have the signature associated with CO2 climate forcing. However, the data show a small underlying positive trend that is consistent with CO2 climate forcing with no-feedback.
The science is not openly debate because the facts do not support a worldwide carbon tax, a worldwide carbon monitoring bureaucracy, and spending the trillions of dollars on carbon sequestration and carbon off sets. If the cost to mitigate a risk is higher than cost to directly manage the risk itself the do nothing alternative is the best choice. There is no scientific or logical reason to spend trillions of dollars trying to slow the rise of atmospheric CO2. There are not trillions of surplus public funds to spend on a mitigating a problem which is not a problem. In the case of this “problem” simple and cost effective energy conservation as opposed to carbon taxes and carbon sequestration which serve no purpose is the best government action based on the facts.
CO2 is a fertilizer. Plants eat CO2. A doubling of atmospheric CO2 will result in roughly 30% to 40% increase in crop yield. The blog Real Climate does not include threads discussing the fact that CO2 is a fertilizer.
- Lord Christopher Monckton Debates Economist Richard Denniss at National Press Club in Canberra, Australia (rogueoperator.wordpress.com)
- Science has the real debate (openparachute.wordpress.com)
- Abbott on Monckton bandwagon: PM (news.theage.com.au)