I am now trying to get some order into this theme. Already noted as a Work in Progress, there is much to be done.
Pity really, I had hoped that by now the world would have woken up to the real picture, and my contribution would be unnecessary. But no, the politicians are still hell-bent on destroying our social structures to suit their ambitions, based on lies! Seems to be the way of the ungodly in several areas. (Added 21 Sept 11).
The actual source of the heating, modified by factors following below.
Even though Earth’s modifying mechanisms are several and strong, the heating and other forces from the Sun are FUNDAMENTAL! A change in these will have some effect on Earth’s near surface temperature control system. What is affected and by how much is looked at very carefully here.
There can be no doubt that surface-heating effects of a more radiant sun will, not be exactly counter-balanced by our natural control mediums because the counter balancing must be initiated by an actual change in earth surface heating. A new equilibrium will be reached, (hopefully), but not without a surface heat change of some amount, in some place.
Certainly, what might have otherwise been a, say 10 degC increase at the surface, might be balanced by a surface temperature increase of, say 1 degC because the feedback control mechanism of the atmosphere. But there must be some change at the surface.
The only way that this can be not true, is if the temperature control system that is our atmosphere is modified by an influence outside of our ‘little’ closed system. This is part of the study here, introducing ‘Cosmic Rays‘ as a factor. Strangely enough, even though cosmic rays are derived externally to our Solar system, it appears possible that their influence on our ‘control system’ is modified/moderated by the Sun anyway. A beautiful scenario.
The sun itself has a few different characteristics or behavioural factors each playing a part in the heating effect on the earth:
These are given their own pages as a subset of ‘The Sun”.
Ref: http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/solar/ This site provides extensive, comprehensive, detailed information for the technically minded. Some of it is copied into theses pages in the appropriate places.
(Image via Wikipedia) For the sake of the current dilemma, this is just an interesting reference, but it is nice to know that the scientists consider that the long-term prospects for our Sun to keep us alive are quite healthy. Even if they are a bit inaccurate, (who would know?), civilizations are unlikely to survive for many other reasons. So for the next billion years, we expect the Sun to have roughly the same sort of output. In the short term, however, its specific output does vary, enough to influence our well-being and must be taken into account in this assessment of Earth’s climate. One thing for sure – this factor is not in any way, influenced by human endeavours. (Unless maybe there is a God prepared and able to respond to our prayers. Don’t laugh, no man KNOWS for sure what spiritual powers there are and to what extent we might connect with them). (Updated 21 Sept 11).
SUNSPOT PREDICTION GRAPH
2. Absorption and reflection characteristics of earth surface.
Heat storage and loss factors.
3. Absorption and reflection characteristics of the atmosphere/ionosphere. Which depends on its composition, including CO2. Effects of volcanic emissions. Man-made pollution. “Greenhouse effects”. Cosmic Rays (see #9).
This guy says there is no Greenhouse effect! http://www.tech-know.eu/uploads/Understanding_the_Atmosphere_Effect.pdf
Stephen Wilde has been a Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society since 1968. The first five articles from Mr Wilde were received with a great deal of interest throughout the Co2 Sceptic community.
In Stephen Wilde’s sixth and exclusive article for CO2Sceptics.Com he considers that the IPCC have failed to carry out any risk analysis for the potential for global cooling instead of global warming and that a repeat of the Little Ice Age a mere 400 years ago would cause mass starvation worldwide.
The Death Blow to AGW by Stephen Wilde
The influence of the sun has been discounted in the climate models as a contributor to the warming observed between 1975 and 1998. Those who support the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), now known as anthropogenic climate change so that recent cooling can be included in their scenario, always deny that the sun has anything to do with recent global temperature movements.
- How is the greenhouse effect affecting the earth’s atmosphere (wiki.answers.com)
4. Blocking by clouds. ? both ways?
More clouds, less UV heating during day, but more containment of heat during night. Net effect ? , depends on density, type, altitude of clouds.
5. Cosmic Rays. Modified by the solar magnetic field and pertubations, in turn directly? affecting cloud formation. (More cosmic rays, more clouds; more magnetic field strength, less cosmic rays reach earth.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANMTPF1blpQ Svensen hypothesis, hated by IPCC et al!
6. Distance and orientation of earth to sun.
Inuit Knowledge and Climate Change
on CBC’s The National Earth axis orientation.
7. Heat sources on earth – fires; internal heat dissipation; volcanoes; creation of electrical energy – coal, nuclear, gas; transport fuel burning; even our bodies converting food to heat.
Geologists have used temperature measurements from more than 20,000 boreholes around the world to estimate that some 44 terawatts (44 trillion watts) of heat continually flow from Earth’s interior into space.
Have seen aphoto of a ring of vlcanoes spewing heat right around the Antarctic ?continent. Cannot find where I stored it, if i did.
8. Cooling sources ‘on’ earth – rain, hail, snow, wind, night time radiation back to atmosphere,
9. Cosmic Rays:
Dr Spencer has hit a rich vein here. The time lag concept is unequivocal and occurs in nature all the time, but often doesn’t show up in many academic papers because academics are taught from day 1 to reduce and correct ‘errors’ and ‘mismatches’ as part of good academic editing. The difficulty lies in differentiating valid variation and time lag in nature to common mathematical or other errors. Forecasts must match specific timelines, variations to a theme must be ‘smoothed’ for errors etc. So ‘time lag’ is usually smoothed out and left out. This tendancy also springs from a deeper assumption; that variations to a dominant natural process are ‘errors’ or ‘noise’ by default, rather than an essential element of any chaotic system.
Here are some time lags in nature for reference:
-seasonal land maximum warmth after the summer solstice (up to 6 weeks after summer solstice).
-seasonal cold mimima after winter solstice (as above, but usually less).
-daily land warmth maxima after noon (several hours, depending on clouds and wind)
-20 year time lag of max. earth temperatures determined by solar proxies (Usoskin paper).
-lag in C02 max/minima of several hundred years following temperature changes and ice ages
-lag in temperature changes following earth orbital variations/axis tilt variations and ice ages, particularly for warmth after an ice age (due to ice and albedo affects presumably, which has more time lag than cooling following an interglacial)
-seasonal lags in ocean temperatures and currents following winter and summer solstice
-lag in El Nino/Lina effects from west to east pacific
-ocean tidal lags which follow the moon and sun, but are delayed due to the rate at which water is transferred across the oceans and to the shores.
-Tidal river bores as localised tidal events lags, which may take hours to go up a river after peak tide.
-max swell wave generation following a storm; swell waves produced from wind take time and space to form and reach their peak, and therefore max. peak swell size has a temporal and spatial lag after max wind strength, and only after a length of ocean has been traversed. This can also be effected by local ocean currents (which, if counter to the prevailing winds can produce rogue waves in the open ocean, an extreme ‘maxima event’, a very good analogy to the climate?).
-max. wind gusts following a storm, eg ?tornados may be viewed as ‘chaotic lag effects’ once a tropical storm is already established
-the whole concept of a ‘tipping point’ loosely fits into lag effects in a broader sense.
Can’t think of any others for now, but they are common in nature, not so common amongst academica, due to the diffuculty in differentiating valid variation and time/spatial lag in nature to normal mathematical or other errors and inconsistencies.
Complete post: Rise of the 1st Law Deniers Considered very relevant!!
- Does the greenhouse effect trap heat Venus (wiki.answers.com)
- Is the greenhouse effect caused naturally (wiki.answers.com)
- Is the greenhouse effect man-made (wiki.answers.com)
- Are greenhouse gases affecting the earth (wiki.answers.com)
- Research the greenhouse effect on the internet How much has the average temperature risen Pose possible solutions to the greenhouse effect If none are given in the article think of some on your own (wiki.answers.com)
- The greenhouse effect is caused by the warming of (wiki.answers.com)
- What is a runaway greenhouse effect (wiki.answers.com)
- Global Warming (socyberty.com)
- Living With the Greenhouse Effect (dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com)
- Global Warming Caused by Cosmic Rays and the Sun – Not Humans