A large title, full of meaning, inspires yet another CAGW related post. (If you are a follower or frequenter of my blog, or more importantly, WUWT, you will know that CAGW stands for “Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming” or, in other words, “climate change due to man’s increases in atmospheric CO2 that seriously threaten our future well-being”.
A large issue with enormous global ramifications, not necessarily even global temperature-related. This WUWT post offers important scientific information, I stress scientific because so much of the information thrust onto, and believed by the public, is so far removed from scientific reality that it is is often beyond comprehension.
So we “know” the earth is warming because that is what we are told, or is it? We “know” that this warming is caused by increases in CO2 due to man’s industrial by-product generation, or do we? There is much to consider.
This post deals with an aspect of how we calculate the “warming”. This particular article, shows that the atmosphere above us is in fact not warming at the moment and has not since 1998.
We are told that the global warming is due to a green-house effect, predominately due to CO2, which is increasing at a linear rate because of industrial activities. In 1998, a huge positive spike added a substantial increase in the average global temperature, due to an ‘El-Nino’ ocean current effect that certainly was independent of CO2 generation. (Why that created a net global effect is not clear as the heating effect in some areas might have been balanced by cooling elsewhere, but apparently not?).
Prior to 1998, the UAH temperature remained relatively flat for the preceding 8 years, possibly about +0.02 degC/decade. After 1998 there is arguably a cooling trend of about -0.1 degC, certainly not statistically warming. The 1998 positive spike injected a boost of about +0.2 degC.
These values are accepted by the warmist, but their conclusions are that CO2 has created an average trend of +0.12 degC/decade. In simple terms, two relatively flat periods plus a spike which no-one associates with industrial activity, have no correlation to a linearly increasing CO2 .
More importantly, we are currently experiencing a slight cooling at the same time as CO2 levels are still increasing, therefore a reverse relationship. The atmospheric temperature is elevated compared to pre-1998 and this may tend to increase the earth’s heat content slowly, but, not because of increasing CO2 levels!
In other words, the whole thing sounds illogical to me! Nothing simple about the whole issue, my attempt to simplify might not be valid, but that’s the way I see it!
I just hope I live long enough to experience the next decade in order to establish whether ‘The global warming threat is indeed the “world’s greatest ever scam” ‘, and thousands of so-called “deniers” are proven to be scientifically and logically sound analysts, or “vice-versa”.
Guest Post by Bob Tisdale
Dr. Roy Spencer introduced the updated and much corrected UAH atmospheric temperature data in his blog post Version 6.0 of the UAH Temperature Dataset Released: New LT Trend = +0.11 C/decade. The new temperature anomaly data for the lower troposphere, mid troposphere and lower stratosphere are presently in beta form for comment. That is, they’re not official…yet. I suspect the update will not go over well with the catastrophic-anthropogenic-global-warming crowd. Links to the version 6.0 beta data are at the bottom of Roy’s post, which also contains a detailed discussion of the updates. So if you have questions, please ask them at Roy Spencer’s blog through the above link. This post is a simple data presentation.
The version 6.0 beta temperature anomaly data for the lower troposphere used in this post are here.
In this post, we’ll take a quick look at the…
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