Wow! A robust analysis that is easy to read and understand.
No ventures into politics, blame, personal issues as you would normally expect from a post of my own, just unadorned information.
There is no doubt that the COVID19 virus has taken over our world. With that comes great uncertainty. We are unsure what the aftermath of this pandemic represents and wonder about the economic consequences of the actions we’ve taken to save lives.
Early indicators, prior to the COVID19 crisis, pointed to a recession. You can read my previous post here. Now in April, we have more data and can make better predictions, though these are still based on several unknowns regarding the course of the pandemic, the duration and severity of which ultimately determines our actions and outcomes.
First, we should understand the difference between a Recession and a Depression. A recession is an economic contraction that generally lasts for two quarters, where real GDP is null or negative. A depression is an elongated and more severe period of economic decline. Depressions last longer, often years and see enormous decreases…
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Thanks for the reblog Ken! Much appreciated.
I have to disagree regarding the V shaped rebound. I see lots of pent-up demand in travel and tourism as well as gasoline and jet fuel.
Perhaps at the upper-middle class. What about the peasants?
BTW this was recorded on May 2019
A “V shaped recovery might happen very soon but only short term. The economic indicators in front of me are pointing to a stock market crash and a long term depression and then hyper stagflation. Big changes are coming world wide since the so called “CV 19” has hit the majority of the world population. There is only a small portion of the world population that will come out of this unscathed. This is now a major global issue.
A return to the norm is unlikely but there might be a ray of light. the longer this circus continues the more sacrifice needed to pull out of it..
No radio station will accept this piece. Democracy? Riiiiiiight.
Driven to making a comment myself:
Depression definitely, if applied to the human psyche.
Not from the so-called virus pandemic, but from the isolation rules and the absurd penalties for normal behaviour!