This post adds a practical discussion on the general effects expected from actual global temperature variations.
The first graph, below, is good for showing up the “serious current global warming’, the black plot, curve provided by w:Climatic Research Unit and the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre. Since proven to be unsupportable.
Definitely a good read and the resulting comments add much of value.
We are harangued about the horrors and EVIL that will befall us if the world warms even 1/2 degree C. We are told that at 2 C it is the end of life as we know it. The world will end in a drowned plague ridden state. Is there any way to check this? Some way to ask: “What would the world be like if it was a little colder, or a lot warmer?”
Well, I think there is. We’ve seen this 11,000 year temperature chart before. It is for Greenland, so not exactly representative of Europe, but it does live in the area and the weather of Europe does come from the same general areas. The other chart here zooms in on the last 1000 years. It’s hard to read in the long duration chart. We’re interested in about 1320 AD. On the long chart it is barely a wiggle. Looks like about 1/2 C colder. So lets look at this 1000 year chart to get a better idea.1000 year Temperature Reconstruction
You can see that in about 1320 AD most of the lines are near the same position with only one turquoise colored tree ring series a bit out of agreement. We are now, if the numbers are to be believed, about 0.4+ warmer than the zero line, while then they were about -0.2 cooler. Call it from 1/2 to 2/3 of a degree of C colder.
The (now somewhat discredited) Warmers are absolutely sure they want that 0.4 C to be removed, and one can only presume they would like an added 0.2 C of safety net too. In theory, that time just before the L.I.A. is an ideal time. It is just a touch cooler than the 1200s, and they seem to think cooler is better, so lets use it. (Personally, I don’t see any way at all we could managed the temperature to within a 2/10 range in either case). But lets assume we get headed down to Nirvana. What does the world look like then? We’ll see shortly.
One the other end, lets pick a big hot spot from the past. A time of horrors when pretty much everyone says it was warmer. The Holocene Optimum. Right around that 8.2 kyr event. Nice big spike up in temperatures just before it. Must have been a load of “climate chaos” then. I make it a bit over 2 C higher than now on this graph between about 8,000 and 9,000 BP (about 7,000 to 8,000 in Carbon Years – this matters as a map down below is in Cyr BP). It is clearly a whole lot more ‘warm’ than that little dip at 700 BP / 1300 AD.11,000 years of temperatures
What happened in 1300 AD?
1305/06 (Winter) Severe winter (London/South). A severe winter over much of western Europe. (Easton, in CHMW/Lamb): taking these two last entries together suggests a high frequency of blocked / anticyclonic episodes.
Chiefio’s site was providing me with information, and confidence in being sceptical about AGW long before I started my own blog. Hopefully it will do the same for you.
- Much of the media still truly believes (junkscience.com)
- Freezing winter could prompt business insurance review (premierlinedirect.co.uk)
- ClimateDepot: Lord Monckton to pursue fraud charges against Climategate scientists (junkscience.com)