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{Minor updates 25/9}
A reader comment on the earlier post “DOOMSDAY FIRE: Millions of Volcanoes are Stirring Beneath the World’s Oceans” has inspired this post as a better way of replying.
The answer became quite long and involved and became a story of its own. So to Martin Lack, I offer this response.
Martin. I appreciate your commenting but have much to say about your comments.
If we are not to waste time and energy we need to deal in facts. Not personal criticisms, not statements like “just another piece of propaganda….”
This post reveals that a huge number of previously unknown under-sea volcanoes have been discovered. In 1993 over 1000 unmapped were discovered in a small area. In 2007 over 200,000 new volcanoes were surveyed. Hillier and Watts assessed a world-wide total of nearly 3,500,000 submarine volcanoes. (They assess a ratio of active ones to be of the order of 4%). This is an increase of awareness of, from 10 thousand to more than 3 million, 300 times the number of volcanoes, in less than 20 years.
What are the active volcanoes doing? “a single volcano can heat a high-mountain lake to 108 degrees in New Zealand,”, “asphalt volcanoes emit huge amounts of methane and, along with other submarine hydrothermal volcanic vents, they are the leading causes of hypoxia (dead-zones) in oceans, rising temperatures, ocean acidity and worsening oscillation weather patterns”.
FourWinds10 is saying “how little we still know – about this incredible force of nature. We know more about the moon.”
What is this post saying? The world is changing! Earthquakes and volcanoes are altering our environment. Perhaps there is much danger ahead from the active volcanoes and earthquakes. No mention of CO2.
What do our comments say so far?
Reader comment – volcano emissions have been ignored or under-estimated, by AGW scientists.
My comment – varying effects possible for varying reasons. So far the term CO2 has not appeared.
Martin’s comment– mainly – “I think you guys need to read what the (USGS and) the Vice President of the Geological Society (of London) thinks of Ian Plimer’s assertion that volcanoes emit more CO2 than humans…”
Mine, herewith:
If you have perused my blog you will have a good idea what I believe about the AGW “science”. Volcanoes get a mention in the ‘Page’ “Carbon Attack” but nothing of significance in the big picture. We, nevertheless, better stick to your thread here.
I have followed the link(s) in your comment and dispute your inferences of Plimer being successfully debunked and that he and this post are promoting propaganda.
Just for the sake of arguing – Even IF Plimer is right, and volcanoes contributed equal or significant CO2 amounts as do humans, your theory that man-made CO2 should be reduced, would still be valid IF CO2, from wherever, is a significant global temperature (GT) driver, and of course, IF increased GT was sufficient to be a problem anyway. So, why are you concerned with Plimer? Perhaps because he must not be seen to be right about anything, because he is a “denier”, and perhaps because then he might be right about other aspects. On the other hand, he is being picked on for a particular issue, as I said, almost irrelevant to AGW itself, because it looked easy to prove him wrong.
So, let’s look at whether he could possibly be right, even though well-rubbished by your linked authorities.
Actually, I haven’t found where Plimer specifically says “volcanoes emit more CO2 than humans…”, but he is being reported as saying that, so let’s accept that as a premise.
From the first linked reference
– [http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.php] (Bold by me!).
1. “For example, all studies to date of global volcanic carbon dioxide emissions indicate that present-day subaerial and submarine volcanoes release less than a percent of the carbon dioxide released currently by human activities.”
Comment:. “all studies to date” Why say that if the studies are accepted as valid? It leaves room for updated studies to supersede the conclusion. {Update 25/9: In any case the statement is wrong! Not ‘all’ studies, because this post reveals one that does dispute the claimed relationship!}
2. “Human activities, responsible for a projected 35 billion metric tons (gigatons) of CO2 emissions in 2010 (Friedlingstein et al., 2010), release an amount of CO2 that dwarfs the annual CO2 emissions of all the world’s degassing subaerial and submarine volcanoes (Gerlach, 2011).”
C: “projected 35 Gt/yr.. in 2010” Written in 2010, why is this a projected figure and not a known one. I suppose if there was a published estimated amount for 2009, a projection might make sense. Anyway, what this boils down to is that the figure is not a known value. Perhaps it’s within 10 or 20% which suffices for this argument.
3. “There continues to be efforts to reduce uncertainties and improve estimates of present-day global volcanic CO2 emissions, but there is little doubt among volcanic gas scientists that the anthropogenic CO2 emissions dwarf global volcanic CO2 emissions.”
C: Admission of uncertainties and need to improve estimates, no mention of extent of these what-might-otherwise-be inaccuracies. {Update 25/9: ‘little doubt’ meaning some? Meaning room for doubt?}
4. “The published estimates of the global CO2 emission rate for all degassing subaerial (on land) and submarine volcanoes lie in a range from 0.13 gigaton to 0.44 gigaton per year (Gerlach, 1991; Varekamp et al., 1992; Allard, 1992; Sano and Williams, 1996; Marty and Tolstikhin, 1998). ”
C. Now we have some data. A range to cover unknowns, looking good.
5. “In recent times, about 70 volcanoes are normally active each year on the Earth’s subaerial terrain. One of these is Kīlauea volcano in Hawaii, which has an annual baseline CO2 output of about 0.0031 gigatons per year [Gerlach et al., 2002]. It would take a huge addition of volcanoes to the subaerial landscape—the equivalent of an extra 11,200 Kīlauea volcanoes—to scale up the global volcanic CO2 emission rate to the anthropogenic CO2 emission rate.”
C: This is good. currently about 70 above-ground-level volcanoes active at any time. 11 thousand volcanoes of this size might total human guestimated output. .
From the second link, referred to via the first:
http://www.agu.org/pubs/pdf/2011EO240001.pdf “Volcanic Versus Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide”
6. Volcanic emissions include CO2 from erupting magma and from degassing of unerupted magma beneath volcanoes. Over time, they are a major source for restoring CO2 lost from the atmosphere and oceans by silicate weathering, carbonate deposition, and organic carbon burial [Berner, 2004]. Global estimates of the annual present-day CO2 output of the Earth’s degassing subaerial and submarine volcanoes range from 0.13 to 0.44 billion metric tons (gigatons) per year [Gerlach, 1991; Allard, 1992; Varekamp et al., 1992; Sano and Williams, 1996; Marty and Tolstikhin, 1998];
C: I just liked the sound of this, because it describes processes and confirms estimated CO2 outputs. Except that it uses papers dated 1991, 1992, 1996 and 1998, clearly out-dated. I also liked the bit about the “restoring of CO2 lost from the atmosphere” {Update 25/9: You know, the CO2 that has a claimed life of ? 100 years in the atmosphere!}
7. While such efforts are of great scientific importance, the clear need to communicate the dwarfing of volcanic CO2 by anthropogenic CO2 to educators, climate change policy makers, the media, and the general public is also important. Discussions about climate policy can only benefit from this recognition.
C: What a classic AGENDA issue, no more, no less. (LOL) {Update 25/9: I LOVE this statement!}
Then from http://www.geolsoc.org.uk/page10375.html
8. “but many people, including some Earth scientists working in fields outside volcanology, think that volcanoes emit more CO2 than human activities do2. “
C: So it’s not just one scientist (Plimer), who has this claimed aberration of a scientific process that confuses “equality” with “dwarfing”. Could he and the others all be wrong?
A quote attributed to Ian Plimer – “support the notion that volcanoes are behind the increases in atmospheric CO2 that we have seen since the industrial revolution began”.
C: I cannot understand anyone saying this. It is fairly clear that our industrial process are creating extra CO2. Volcanoes may also be contributing, but they are logically not responsible for all increases, or behind the increases, as suggested. I’d like to hear Ian’s response. I can only assume that he has been misquoted. You simply have to remove the word ‘the’ and it would make sense.
Where are we at?
Hillary and Watts estimate that there are probably at least 3 million submarine volcanoes, of which an estimated 4% are active.
This would be around 12 thousand active volcanoes.
Your references say we would need about 11,000 active volcanoes to ‘match’ the human CO2 output. A bit of a coincidence? Perhaps Plimer has peer support!
It looks as though it’s time to debunk (try) yet another “denier” scientist or two, or more.
Over to you, Martin.
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The GOLDEN RULE 